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Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technology
Comparing Technology Forecast Surveys, Technology, Innovation and Policy (ISI) 1
ISBN/EAN: 9783790808001
Umbreit-Nr.: 4149033
Sprache:
Englisch
Umfang: xvi, 238 S.
Format in cm:
Einband:
kartoniertes Buch
Erschienen am 26.10.1994
- Zusatztext
- Inhaltsangabe1 General Method.- 1.1 Review of Western Literature on the Delphi Approach.- 1.2 Overview of the Previous Delphi Experience in Japan.- 1.3 Basic Statistics.- 1.4 Special Aspects of Transposing the Japanese Delphi Approach to Another Country.- 1.5 Outline of Survey Parameters and Data Processing for the Comparison.- 1.5.1 Degree of Expertise.- 1.5.2 Degree of Importance.- 1.5.3 Time of Realization.- 1.5.4 Degree of Certainty.- 1.5.5 Necessity of International Joint Development.- 1.5.6 R&D Level.- 1.5.7 Constraints.- 2 Basic Macro Comparison.- 2.1 Expert Knowledge.- 2.2 Importance.- 2.3 Time of Realization.- 2.4 Foresight Precision.- 2.5 International Co-operation.- 2.6 R&D Level.- 2.6.1 The Japanese View.- 2.6.2 The German View.- 2.7 Constraints.- 2.7.1 Technical Constraints.- 2.7.2 Institutional Constraints.- 2.7.3 Cultural Constraints.- 2.7.4 Cost Constraints.- 2.7.5 Constraints in Funding.- 2.7.6 Constraints in Fostering or Securing Human Resources.- 2.7.7 Constraints in the R&D System.- 2.7.8 Summary.- 2.8 Conclusions on the Macro Level.- 3 Cross Comparisons on the Macro Level.- 3.1 Comparing Expert Knowledge with Importance.- 3.2 Comparing Expert Knowledge with Forecasted Time of Realization.- 3.3 Comparing Expert Knowledge with Constraints on Realization.- 3.4 Comparison of the Importance and the Time of Realization.- 3.5 Comparison of the Time of Realization and the Time Variance.- 3.6 Comparing Certainty with Time of Realization Variance.- 3.7 Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation with the Importance.- 3.8 Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation and the Estimated Time of Realization.- 3.9 Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation and the Present R&D Level.- 3.10 Correlation between Constraints and the Necessity of International Co-operation.- 3.11 Correlation of the R&D Level and the Importance of the Topics.- 3.12 Time of Realization and R&D Level.- 3.13 Correlation between the R&D Level and the Various Constraints on the Realization.- 3.14 Comparison of the Importance and the Various Constraints on the Realization.- 3.14.1 Technical Constraints.- 3.14.2 Cultural Constraints.- 3.14.3 Constraints in Costs.- 3.14.4 Constraints in Funding.- 3.14.5 Constraints in Fostering or Securing Human Resources.- 3.14.6 Constraints in the R&D System.- 3.15 Time of Realization in Comparison with the Constraints on Realization.- 3.15.1 Technical Constraints.- 3.15.2 Constraints in Funding.- 3.15.3 Constraints in Fostering or Securing Human Resources.- 3.15.4 Constraints in the R&D System.- 3.16 Comparative Conclusions for the Countries.- 4 Cross Comparisons of Technological Topics on the Micro Level.- 4.1 Comparing some Important Innovation Scenarios.- 4.1.1 Nanometer-size Structures.- 4.1.2 Cancer.- 4.1.3 Alzheimer's Disease.- 4.1.4 Renewable Sources of Energy.- 4.2 Estimation of the Importance on the Micro Level.- 4.2.1 Ranking by Importance in Japan and Germany.- 4.2.2 Ranking by the Difference in the Importance.- 4.3 Forecast of the Realization Times on the Micro Level.- 4.3.1 Near Future.- 4.3.2 Distant Future.- 4.3.3 Large Differences in the Realization Time.- 4.4 International Co-operation.- 4.4.1 Necessity for International Co-operation on the Micro Level.- 4.4.2 Ranking of the Major Differences in International Cooperation.- 4.5 Time Variance of the Forecast Compared with Certainty.- 4.6 Most Efficient Innovation Projects.- 4.6.1 Materials and Processing.- 4.6.2 Information and Electronics.- 4.6.3 Life Sciences.- 4.6.4 Particles.- 4.6.5 Marine Science and Earth Science.- 4.6.6 Mineral and Water Resources.- 4.6.7 Energy.- 4.6.8 Environment.- 4.6.9 Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.- 4.6.10 Production.- 4.6.11 Urbanization and Construction.- 4.6.12 Communications.- 4.6.13 Space.- 4.6.14 Transportation.- 4.6.15 Medical Care and Health.- 4.6.16 Culture and Lifestyles.- 4.6.17 Conclusions from the Most Efficient Innovation Projects.- 5 Conclusions.- Literature.